WORKING GROUP SUMMARIES

CLIMATE WORKING GROUP

Compiled by Gregg Garfin, Climate Assessment for the Southwest, University of Arizona

The Climate Working Group (CWG) examined issues with regard to key research, monitoring, prediction, and communication needs for the Southwest with a special focus on Arizona. Among the issues considered most important for further research and attention, was the need to investigate the mechanisms that initiate and end drought – especially persistent severe drought. The CWG recommends special attention be given to decade-scale climate variations, usually the result of long-term ocean circulation patterns. Such variations are key to understanding the timescales associated with water supply replenishment, recovery from drought, and our ability to predict sustained drought.

The CWG recommends attention and resources be devoted to monitoring drought on many spatial and temporal scales, with a special emphasis on hydrological monitoring and improving the network of high-elevation monitoring sites. In addition, the CWG recommends support of global monitoring systems, in order to improve our ability to track the persistent ocean circulation patterns that control long-term drought in the Southwest, according to the most up-to-date research available.

The CWG found that our ability to predict drought is, at present, poor. Prediction is, in part, constrained by seasonal climate variations that limit forecast accuracy in spring, for example. However, the CWG is sanguine that drought forecasts will improve as deep ocean monitoring networks are expanded, and as information about decade-scale climate variations is incorporated into forecasts. In the absence of substantial forecast skill, and in addition to the present array of available forecast tools, the CWG recommends the development of scenario tests, based on analogues from historical and paleo-climate records.

Finally, the CWG suggests increased and improved communication, a single state drought spokesperson/coordinator, for example, the State Climatologist, and improved public education on drought in order to enhance our ability to mitigate the effects of, and respond to, persistent drought in the Southwest.

Key Issues

1) What starts and ends droughts?

Ø Drought inducing ocean patterns

Ø Persistence in climate system

Ø Long-term decade-scale climate variations

2) What could trigger a wet period?

Ø Some combination of the following, which affect the position of the Jet Stream and delivery of moisture to the Southwest:

§ Positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Negative phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO: an example would be cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean), El Niño

Ø A consistent combination of positive PDO and negative AMO for ~3 years

Ø Individual events such as El Niño are merely interruptions

3) What drought indices are appropriate for AZ?

Ø Palmer Drought Indices (PDSI< PHDI), Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI), Remote Sensing-derived indices

Ø For effective drought monitoring and assessment, there is a need to calculate drought indices at finer spatial scales

§ For example, is a county or watershed scale more appropriate?

4) What are the sub-regional spatial patterns of precipitation?

5) There is a need for research on droughtas well as drought monitoring to continue during wet periods.

Predictions

· No predictions were offered by the working group due the limitations of forecasting, however there are some recommendations for ascertaining possible predictions in the future:

Ø A more accurate 9-month forecast of ENSO-related sea surface temperatures is possible following the spring months. During the spring the ocean-atmosphere system is unstable, resulting in poor forecast skill. Forecasts can be provided by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), and from independent Global Circulation Models (GCM’s)

Ø With improved ocean monitoring more accurate forecasts are possible

Ø One long-term consensus forecast is possible

Scenario Testing vs. Prediction

· A distinction important to decision makers in the Southwest is that long-term drought is subject to irregular regimes, rather than regular cycles.

· Droughts recorded in the historical and paleo-climate records can be used to develop a variety of scenarios for planning.

· Decadal-scale climate information, such as that derived from records of the PDO, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and AMO, should be incorporated into scenario development and testing.

· It is important that researchers provide explicit confidence statements with regard to scenarios and scenario testing.

Possible Scenarios

· Re-evaluate management decisions from recent drought years.

Ø For example, if we had 100% foresight about 1999-2002 drought, could certain management decisions have mitigated the effects of drought?

· Mega-drought Scenarios – what would happen if the Great Drought (1200-1300’s) occurred today?

· What are the implications of Arizona-only droughts versus more regionally extensive droughts?

Research Needs

· Assess and Implement Solutions to State/Regional Monitoring Gaps

Ø Arizona requires soil moisture monitoring network of at least 25-30 stations

Ø Maintain funding for stream gauges, groundwater monitoring, and climate stations; high elevation precipitation/snow monitoring stations

Ø Update key tree-ring records

§ Need 2002 to establish a more effective baseline for State/Regional

§ Monitoring gaps

Ø Incorporate remotely sensed data in order to fill in spatial gaps, especially with regard to summer PPT

· Global Monitoring is necessary to help assess the status of climate patterns that affect the Southwest.

Ø Non-tropical deep ocean monitoring

Ø Support NOAA (CLIVAR) - have plans to increase instrumentation

Ø Be ware that better monitoring and forecast tools may be available in the near future

Ø Our understanding of climate is improving

Outreach & Communication Needs

· Improve public understanding through outreach programs.

Ø Make published research available to managers and decision makers; encourage & improve such efforts

· Have a state drought spokesperson.

Ø For example, a state climatologist

· Get the attention of federal forecast/climate agencies to focus on SW issues.

Ø For example, decadal-scale drought

· Increase communication among and between disciplines .

Ø For example, climatologists and economists

WATER WORKING GROUP

Compiled by Margot Truini¹, Abe Springer², David Ostergren³

¹USGS, Flagstaff Field Office, ²Northern Arizona University, Department of Geology, ³ Northern Arizona University, Center for Environmental Science and Education

Although the focus on droughts is usually on a lack of precipitation, this decrease in precipitation has consequences for hydrologic systems on and below the surface of the Earth. Drought leads to a decrease in recharge to aquifers through reductions in: (1) aerially distributed recharge, (2) focused recharge, (3) waste water return flows, (4) irrigation return flow, and from (5) increased evaporation and transpiration. The typical response of humans to a hydrologic drought is to: (1) pump more groundwater at existing wells to make up for loss of surface water, (2) drill more boreholes to augment supply, (3) remove riparian vegetation to decrease transpiration, (4) implement conservation practices, and/or (5) develop alternative water supplies.

Hydrologic drought impacts soil water and groundwater in many ways. It leads to a loss of groundwater and soil-water storage. This causes water levels in wells to be lowered and an increased depth to water in riparian areas with less water available for the plants to transpire. It also leads to a decrease in aquifer discharge. This will cause a decrease in base-flow in streams and lakes, decreased spring discharges, and decreased aquatic habitat in streams and lakes. Other impacts are increases in the risks from land subsidence and saltwater intrusion.

The U.S. Geological Survey began a system of monitoring stream discharge in the late 1800’s on many streams in the U.S. There are now continuous gages on over 7,000 streams, but a lack of stations with records of more than 30 years and a growing loss of gages on the smallest, unregulated streams, make it difficult to observe the impacts of drought on base-flow. In response to the drought of the 1930s, the USGS began monitoring water levels in a network of wells. Generally, this program has a more complete and extensive record in the Eastern U.S. than in the Western U.S. Some states use these wells as part of their drought management strategy.

Because of the lack of direct hydrological measurements of the impacts of recent droughts, it is useful to look at the hydrological impacts of land-use management to understand potential impacts on hydrological systems. There are good examples of changing agricultural practices and changing forest management practices to use as surrogates to understand the changes we might anticipate from drought. Also there may be animal taxa, such as spring snails, that may be very useful habitat indicators of long-term vegetation patterns, to understand drought on longer time scales.

The water in the Colorado River is fully subscribed, which will only exacerbate future drought conditions. There are a variety of demand tensions, including unprecedented population growth in the Southwest that need to be understood in order to develop viable plans for the region. International and Native American water rights claims/settlements need to be resolved and/or considered in drought plans that explicitly involve water use. There are supply tensions among political entities in the region that will have a major impact on dealing with basin wide drought. Sensitivity of snowpacks to climate forcings will be an important consideration in predicting future water availability. On-going water resource planning remains crucial for our future. Drought can exacerbate the potential for reactionary and politically motivated water planning. Systematic, basin wide natural resource planning that incorporates technical, policy and social knowledge is crucial for successful panning. For example, the Chesapeake Bay Program is a multi-state, multi-campus, multi-disciplinary program that exemplifies successful natural resource planning and management. This is one potential model that the Southwest should consider, in order to ensure that we are successful in developing future water supplies without compromising natural resources and quality of life for some communities in order to supply other communities.

Key Issues

1) There is a public perception that the resource is unlimited.

Ø The notion that one might have to pay higher water fees, but there is plenty of water to go around right now without a lot of thought towards the future

2) There is a need for adequate land use planning.

Ø Real estate planners, golf courses

3) Conversion of agricultural land to residential land.

Ø Apparently, residential land use uses more water then the previous agricultural uses of the land

4) A desire to preserve “the rural way of life” despite its current conflict with maintaining or creating sustainable conditions.

5) Impacts on hydrologic processes (recharge/storage)

Ø Increased runoff where trees and plants have been removed from the land cover, allowing water to keep moving over the land instead of going into the ground

Ø Increased Fire and

Ø bark beetle infestations

6) There exist short-term institutional barriers to water movement.

Ø Conservation practices

7) There is a need for better communication/outreach/interaction on water shortage/supply.

Ø Devise approaches to educating people on how to conserve water, where the water comes from, who is sharing the water with them, and why they should conserve

8) Urban/rural polarization must be reduced.

Ø Devise better communication between the urban and rural communities with regards to water use, water needs (i.e. livestock needs versus filling your swimming pool). The larger voting body is typically urban and thus rural needs and issues may be overlooked.

9) Regular stakeholder involvement in is needed more in the planning process.

Ø Allow greater public participation

10) Greater communication of hydrological issues to land managers is needed along with promoting greater public participation.

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12) The problems that arise with water availability in relation to a growing population must be taken into account.

Ø The growing population means more wells pulling out more water. How many wells can we put in the ground and on what evidence is this water use based? Can a community establish a population number, based on the water availability, beyond which there can be no more growth?

13) Need to evaluate the impact of drought on watershed scale, point monitoring (e.g., single wells) is not adequate.

Ø An example of this is wells drying up in Parks, Arizona

14) Further study of groundwater/surface-water interaction is necessary.

Ø Is ground water being withdrawn from wells near a flowing river impacting the river stage?

Ø For example, Chino Valley and the Verde River, or the Little Colorado River Basin

15) How will the dynamics of drought and decreased snow pack impact water availability?

Ø For example, increased temperatures

Ø Less snow means less recharge to ground water or run off to Lake Powell. How does this affect water use in communities?

16) It is necessary for many different constituents to understanding the water budget.

Ø Regional understanding of where the water from the tap is coming from. Learn how to communicate this to water managers and communities to help conserve water and/or limit growth

17) There needs to be centralized management and planning authority.

Ø Make sure all parties involved are making informed decisions based on sound information

18) A greater understanding of supply and demand is necessary.

Ø How much water is available and who needs it?

19) How does location affect water availability in certain communities?

Ø upstream vs. downstream

Ø water rights issues, water quality issues

20) More accurate information/indices are needed.

Ø Make sure the parameters and conditions under which the data were collected are well understood

Ø For example, long-term versus short-term surface water gauging data; or tree ring data; or paleo-climatic data)

21) Time scales for the information being collected and used in planning must be taken into consideration.

Ø Same concerns and suggestions as for #19

22) The integrity of spring, seep, and riparian ecosystems must be protect and preserved.

Ø Make sure riparian ecosystems are not adversely impacted by human needs

23) Protection of endangered species is necessary.

Ø Protection of the ecosystem(s) in which the species lives

Predictions

· Droughts are normal and will continue.

Ø Understanding that drought is part of the climatic cycle whether caused by anthropogenic or natural causes

· Less snow pack will decrease recharge to aquifers and reduce surface water availability.

Ø Fits into understanding the water budget and how drought affects the water used by a community and/or decisions made by City water managers

· Increased evapotranspiration (i.e., water transpired by plants) will occur with increases in temperature.

Ø Evapotranspiration removes a lot of water from a system. More plants lead to an increase in water loss

· Aquifers will continue to be drained regardless of drought conditions.

Ø Communities ignore drought conditions and continue with the same level of water usage as in non-drought conditions

· Policy links must be made between groundwater and surface water.

Ø Communities have to be pro-active and learn about the hydrologic connection between groundwater and surface water and make sound water use decisions based on this understanding

· The increase in population will result in an increase of ground water pumping.

· There will be an increase in sedimentation in existing reservoirs due to the impacts of fire in watersheds.

Ø Surface water runoff in areas where foliage has been removed by fire or other means will increase the salinity within the reservoirs from increases in the sediment being carried in with the water and diminish the water quality

Ø Decrease storage

Ø Decrease in water quality

· Changes in channel morphology will occur.

Ø Down cutting and/or aggradations

Ø Apparently, either process can occur in times of drought

· Groundwater usage and pumping will increase as it is no longer possible to create new surface-water reservoirs.

· Rivers, streams and washes will be negatively impacted by the continued loss of discharge from the groundwater systems due to a increased water use and a lack of recharge. This condition will be aggravated by the impacts if pumping in rivers and streams, and base-flow will be especially problematic near pumping centers.

· A greater use of alternative water supplies will need to occur.

Ø Recycled water, reclaimed effluent, and captured water, for example, storm water

Ø Gray water

· Water quality will continue to decline as wastewater is a soup of unregulated compounds.

Ø Know what is in your reclaimed/recycled water and which uses are reasonable

· We will work together---the population will respond.

· We will protect rivers, plants, animals.

· A change in the economic paradigm must occur so that growth is not the only valid indication of the future health of our country.

Manager Needs

· Define the triggers and thresholds of drought for clarification and identification purposes.

Ø Through dependable scientific means identify ways to measure aspects of the hydrologic system that clearly declare drought conditions

· Make data readily accessible as well as understandable, and easy to interpret.

· Researchers must produce information and materials in a timely manner.

· Create a comprehensive, integrated spring monitoring program.

Ø Identify vulnerable springs

Ø Establish monitoring program

· Assess hydrologic needs and concerns at the geographic scale of watersheds.

· Know and understand redundant water supplies, especially in rural areas.

· Understand transient nature of water budgets and associated processes.

Ø Recharge

· Generate better GIS information for hydrologic planning/models for floodplains and watersheds.

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· Define appropriate baseline conditions/trends, triggers, and thresholds of drought.

· Create a comprehensive, integrated, monitoring program in real time in designated monitoring wells.

Ø Determine well sites that are unused, to collect water level data, which can be used to determine the health of the ground water system

Ø Identify vulnerable aquifers

Ø Establish monitoring program

· Increase resources for proper management.

· Incorporate cultural information into hydrologic system management.

· Estimate returns on previous investment in research.

Ø Make sure the manager understands what will happen if they do not invest in gaining knowledge about the hydrologic system they depend on for water

· Need to support long-term monitoring.

Ø Managers often provide funding for short time period, but scientists understand and need long term monitoring to provide information for at least some solutions

· Participation in Drought Task Force and subgroups is required.

· Create an organizational framework that would facilitate communication among researchers, managers, and other stakeholders.

Researcher Needs

· Increase in allocation of resources, including funding that are adequate and sufficient, towards drought research.

· Make data from land and water managers accessible to help guide research efforts

Ø Knowing past & present land uses (e.g., grazing, timber sales) would be helpful for directing research, or placing it in appropriate context

· issues.

· Management planning documents and policy papers need to incorporate more results from studies. Researchers need to know how the results of their research will be disseminated. Despite researchers voluntarily compiling their results for managers, they are not always incorporated into management plans.

· Government and agency support for long-term studies. Land management plans and funding agencies need to invest at least some resources in long-term monitoring and research in order for early detection of drought impacts and initiation of drought mitigation plans.

· Scientists must have a forum for collaboration with stakeholders, managers, and others.

· Scientists must build relationships with managers and take time to interact with them.

· Prioritize research.

· Responsibilities must be delineated.

· Scientists must participate in the AZ Drought Task Force and in each subgroup.

BIODIVERSITY WORKING GROUP

Compiled by Peter Price, Neil Cobb and Kitty Gehring

Northern Arizona University, Department of Biology, and Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research.

The Biodiversity Working Group examined several areas of interrelated interest that were highly relevant to drought issues. Concerns about loss in biodiversity is relevant because of the direct impact of drought on plants and animals and the added pressure of human activities exacerbating the problem of drought for plant and animal species.

The areas of focus by the working group were native plant and animal populations, species, and communities, with a complementary but separate focus on key wildlife species. The other areas of focus were the role of drought in promoting insect outbreaks, invasive plant species, and diseases affecting humans and wildlife. Here we summarize the predictions and issues regarding biodiversity and provide some recommendations for mitigation biodiversity losses, including population reductions of key wildlife and plant species at risk.

Key Issues

1) Species at risk – threatened and endangered species

Ø We need to know the species that are impacted by drought, those that are at the southern end of their range, those that exploit temporary water holes and small springs, and those that utilize other species susceptible to drought, such as herbivores

2) Habitat types at risk (fragmentation and conversion) along with keystone/dominant species

Ø There will be increasers and decreasers in response to drought. The proportion in each of these categories will likely depend on the length and severity of drought

Ø Predictions are needed on the response of many species. Keystone species are defined as those species that greatly impact the ecosystems in which they live (i.e. productivity, biodiversity) well beyond their biomass, e.g. ants

3) The problems of invasive species and several diseases are likely to increase

Ø Detection protocols are needed to reduce movement and colonization of invasive species in new areas. Monitoring programs need to provide early warning of the existing of emerging diseases.

4) The scale of studies and interactions affect perceptions on the importance of drought

Ø Highly mobile animals may be less impacted than immobile plants and poor dispersers such as snails and fish. Conversely, large animals might be more impacted than small animals. Wildlife species, insects and plants will respond to drought in different ways, which we need to understand

5) Long-term and short-term effects are important to understand

Ø This will require long- term studies and the establishment of a data bank with any relevant long-term data generally available. Shortage of long-term studies, experiments and monitoring of permanent plots is a disadvantage for understanding the consequences of drought. Existing data sets should be exploited

Ø There are few sources of funding designated to support the long-term integrated aspects of drought

6) Education at all levels, from bio-political to management and cultural

Ø Paradigm shifts will be necessary for any activity that could have major impacts on biodiversity during droughts. Such activities and policies include grazing and grazing rights, home water use, irrigation, grey water, storage of run-off, promotion of efficiency and general water conservation

7) Priorities need to be set, scenarios developed and general planning established to interface society, research, management and policies

8) Socioeconomic priorities need to be debated and resolved, including outdoor recreation, promotion of planning for urban development or its restriction, farming, sports, natural areas and wilderness. Protection of property and sensitive habitats against fire will be essential

9) The role of temperature as a factor explaining insect outbreaks and invasive species needs to be considered. Although we focus on precipitation during droughts, increased temperatures can play an important role in promoting pest outbreaks.

Predictions

· We predict several changes will occur in the biodiversity of plants and animals. One of the biggest concerns is that sensitive species will go locally extinct. These will include species that are the most directly dependent on water resources such as springs. Populations of most species will be more likely to move north in latitude or up elevational gradients to areas that fulfill needs for sufficient water and reduced temperatures. Contraction of geographic range may be common as large areas become too stressful for reproduction and survival. Drought-adapted species will increase in abundance and/or expand their range. Thus, there will be different responses to drought, both in the short term and long term. Some species will increase in abundance and distribution while other species will decrease. Examples of species include:

Ø Short-Term Response

§ increasers – bark beetles, invasive plants, generalist species, bark foragers

§ decreasers – threatened and endangered species, specialists, many wildlife species

Ø Long-Term Response

§ increasers - invasive species, some wildlife (depends on habitat shifts)

§ decreasers – bark beetles and bark foragers, specialists

· Resetting of succession. Death of dominant plants and fire will set plant community succession back to earlier stages, for example from forest to weedy annuals. Drought may result in terrestrial plant succession succeeding aquatic habitats

· Existing refugia may decline or be lost. Sky island habitat will shrink, and aquatic and moist habitats will decline, perhaps resulting in unsustainable populations of residents

· Foci of interactions concentrate around limited water resources, leading to greater competition and potential for spread of diseases

· Bottlenecks develop in space and time. As size of populations decrease to critical levels, genetic bottlenecks result and establishment of new and viable populations is greatly limited

Common Needs for Managers and Researchers

· Priority lists for planning, including identifying species of concern, habitats of concern, and how their viability depends on water conservation, and land use practices

· Setting socioeconomic priorities such as outdoor recreation, private property use and hunting.

· Long-term data sets from experiments to monitoring of species distributions and abundances, plant and animal community structure, and response of key species to drought

· Network of long-term protected plots representing all southwest habitat types, including control plots, for extended observation of communities, interactions and responses to drought

· Monitoring criteria and protocols for standardized data collection and directly comparable results

· Acceleration of permitting processes to conduct critical studies for understanding how drought impacts populations, and plant and animal communities

· Improved information exchange between researchers and managers

Ø Meetings, conferences and online research forums necessary for researchers and managers to effectively respond to one another’s needs

· Review and synthesis of scientific information needs to be conducted on an annual basis through interdisciplinary research/management teams

· Historical photographs, remote sensing, databases should be incorporated into current drought-specific data so that we can better ascertain how habitats have changed over time (historic photos) and across the Southwest (remote sensing), as well as how they might impact different land management practices (existing databases)

· Development of predictive models and scenario modeling to better understand how sensitive species, dominant species, and biodiversity will be impacted across spatial and temporal scales

· Identification of sensitive habitats and environments and the reduction of impacts by increased active management during drought

· Management for movement and range extension of exotics, invasives, disease and vectors of disease. Disease transmission dynamics will change with drought conditions, which need to be anticipated

Ø e.g., How is an emerging disease like West Nile virus impacted by drought?

· Management at multiple scales. Management needs to be concerned with genetic, population, community, ecosystem, landscape, bioregion and global scales

· Management as if every year is a drought year, at least for species and communities at risk so that they are buffered during droughts, which are unpredictable

· Conflict recognition and resolution. Predictions and management plans are necessary to resolve inevitable conflicts of interest when shortages occur

ECOSYSTEMS WORKING GROUP

Compiled by Matthew Loeser

Northern Arizona University, Center for Environmental Science and Education University

The Ecosystems Working Group (EWG) identified the effects of drought on rural ecosystems, including reduced food security, lost economic vitality, and diminished environmental sustainability. The drought of 2002 in combination with consecutive years of dry conditions has had extensive negative effects on the rural lands and people of Arizona. The EWG predicted that the 2002 drought will have long-term effects on rural communities and that state resources should be invested in mitigating the effects of future droughts. In particular, the EWG recommends a statewide research program that would identify priority areas for monitoring and subsequently serve as a warning system for imminent threats.

The EWG predicts future droughts will produce many of the same negative effects of the 2002 drought on rangelands and agriculture because regional mitigation plans do not exist. Rural economic security would be bolstered by further economic diversification as well as emphasis on managing our natural resources for drought-readiness. Successful preparedness will depend on an educated public, particularly on the issues of natural resources and food production. We recommend the creation of a drought-focused educational outreach program for rural and urban communities.

In summary, the EWG supports a pro-active approach to drought and its effects on rangelands, agriculture, and desertification. It was our estimation that cost-savings, in both economic and environmental terms, would greatly exceed the costs of initiating a drought-readiness program.

Key Issues

1) Plans for managing land must consider and address a range of drought conditions even before drought occurs.

Ø Agencies need established criteria upon which to judge the severity of a drought and then apply appropriate mitigation efforts

2) There is a need for planning across boundaries so that efforts will be effective and appropriate for political, urban, and rural constituents.

Ø Drought commonly crosses political boundaries, but agencies struggle to work across those same boundaries

3) Identify common goals between environmental and agricultural sustainability.

Ø Resource managers would benefit from an enumeration of the shared goals of constituents

4) Raise awareness about the connection between plants and animals and rocks, water, soils.

Ø The public should be better educated on the interrelationships of hydrology, geology, and biology

5) The deferral of ecological debts on public land has been institutionalized.

Ø Pay now or pay later

Ø The public should be informed as to the trade-offs that exist in management actions

Ø Failing to act now or without some level of conservation of water may be limiting options in the future

6) There is a need for rapid measurement tools to allow for de-stocking & restocking of livestock.

Ø In some parts of Arizona, livestock die-offs occurred due to a lack of understanding of the severity of the drought. Managers need tools to inform their decisions

7) The measurement of ecological changes must be ongoing to put drought in context.

Ø Resource managers rarely have information on ecological dynamics that occur at multi-century time scales, let alone multi-decadal scales. We need scientific information to put ecological change in context

8) There must be monitoring at the landscape and/or watershed scale.

Ø Effective monitoring requires an assessment of the appropriate scale. We recommend a large-scale approach

9) Monitoring protocols need to be standardized. Standardization of monitoring protocols

Ø Different agencies apply different monitoring protocols which makes inter-agency collaboration difficult

10) There is a need to identify thresholds/triggers of major ecological change.

Ø There is a growing awareness that ecological change often occurs once a threshold has been crossed. Can we identify drought thresholds for the ecological communities of Arizona?

11) The impacts of drought on agriculture needs to be assessed, including any subsequent changes in the industry’s feedback to the economy.

Ø There needs to be an assessment of the costs of drought based on its effects to Arizona’s agriculture

12) The impacts of ranchland being converted to subdivisions due to economic pressure needs to be explored and addressed.

Ø Drought conditions can push ranching families into selling land for development that may have negative consequences for ecosystems

13) Strategies for dealing with an increased water demand as the result of the urbanization of farmland need to be developed.

Ø As farmland becomes developed, more water is consumed. Communities may wish to apply growth boundaries

14) The economic viability of rural communities during drought needs to be explored and addressed.

Ø Diversification: Drought conditions highlight the need for a diversified income, but rural people may need support to diversify

Ø Forest health

15) There is a need for public outreach to educate citizens about drought and what an appropriate response to it should be.

Ø More informed citizens would lead to more effective decisions

16) Seek a common understanding of land management goals among all stakeholders

Ø Resource managers would benefit from an enumeration of the shared goals of constituents

17) Education and outreach is needed to reconnect society with the land and food production.

Ø Over the last 100 years the American people have become further and further separated from their source of food. This separation limits the ability of the people to make informed decisions regarding the security of their food

18) There is evidence of frequent, low-intensity fires in Southwestern ponderosa pine forests prior to Euro-American settlement. The disruption of this fire regime in the late 1800’s, and large increases in tree density since then, are irrefutable.

Ø Increasing fuel loads and drought in Southwest ponderosa pine forests cause large, synchronous crown fires

Predictions

· An export of soil will cause state changes in plant communities.

Ø Drought tends to lead to increases in soil loss through erosion which may lead to the following ecological responses

§ Higher proportions of woody vegetation

§ Increased desertification

· Changes in land use practices are contingent on changing behavior.

Ø Human behavior may be more limiting to changing land use practices than scientific knowledge

· Frequency of large synchronous crown fires will likely increase in the future because present fuel loads and future increases in fuels overwhelm current capacity for fuels reduction treatments.

Ø Effects of these large synchronous crown fires include: increased opportunities for invasion by exotic, noxious weeds; massive soil erosion; flooding; damage to down slope riparian areas; deforestation for decades to centuries; degradation of aesthetics; degradation of recreation opportunities; and many others

Ø Heavy crown damage to ponderosa pine reduces tree resistance to bark beetle attack, and may promote landscape scale beetle outbreaks

· Heavy ponderosa pine mortality from bark beetles, an effect of the 2002 drought, will likely affect fire incidence and behavior, but data is scarce. A hypothesis is: As long as dead needles remain on the dead trees the hazard for an intense crown fire is high. When the needles fall to the ground the probability of an intense crown fire decreases, but increases for a low-intensity ground fire until they deteriorate. When the dead trees fall, the probability of crown fire is nil, and the residence time of ground fires should increase because of more slow-burning fuels.

· Severe drought decreases herbaceous productivity and diversity, with the following possible effects: increased soil erosion, increased opportunities for exotic plant invasion, reduced energy transfers through food webs, lower NPP and carbon sequestration, altered food webs , and less animal forage.

· Thinning causes small, ephemeral increases in down slope water runoff and drainage; effects diminish as vegetation recovers.

· Landscape scale thinning in the future will be limited by the high costs of treatment, low wood value, and lack of regional markets; inadequate resources for quick NEPA has been suggested as a constraint. Solutions include: 1) coordinated/consistent wood supply, 2) incentives to stimulate local markets/biomass energy, 3) “super NEPA” teams, 4) large state/federal subsides/public works programs.

Manager Needs

· An increase in rapid and statistically reliable monitoring techniques that are also inexpensive is needed.

· Resource managers need to know what and how to monitor drought conditions.

· Research must begin to emphasize the value of practical applications.

· Academic research should be encouraged to achieve both basic and applied results.

· Grazing management/planning systems should be based on research and account for climate.

· Resource management needs to create management plans that do not assume a consistent climate.

· An adequate response to drought will require the effort of more people and funding.

Ø Better monitoring of rangeland, determining forage production

Ø Established protocol for decision making due to drought

· Planning should take into account the beneficial effects of thinning on ponderosa pine water uptake and growth are most pronounced in drought years; thinning ameliorates effects of drought on tree stress.

· Thinning is recommended to reduce ponderosa pine tree density in order to increase tree resistance against bark beetles and reduce crown fire occurrence

· Need to resolve potential conflicts among different users (i.e. recreation versus wildlife) in order to better plan and manage land across administrative boundaries.

Ø An example of this is the Hopi – Navajo boundary

· Policymakers need to be informed on the consequences of developing rural land.

Ø Preventing desertification of woodlands and savannahs as a practical matter over large areas

Ø A region-wide plan should be developed for limiting desertification and its negative effects

Ø Getting criteria for drought management into land use plans for federal agencies

· Drought management plans should exist at every level of government, from cities to the federal level.

Ø Rethinking grazing practices/management and partnerships

§ For example, individual vs. common allotments

· Rapid response to drought will be more effective than a post-mortem approach.

Ø Giving people options for what to do with their livestock

· Political decisions should recognize ecological constraints.

Ø Ongoing ecological changes putting drought in context:

§ Grassland to woodland

§ Effects on water

§ Effects on resource availability (forage)

§ Effects on economic viability

Ø Good ways of identifying onset and relief of drought

Researcher Needs

· Researchers need to know the questions to which the resource managers are seeking answers.

· More funding and involved people are necessary.

· Rapid measurement tools to allow for de-stocking and restocking of livestock are needed.

· The ongoing measurement of ecological changes is needed to put drought in context.

· Monitoring at landscape and/or watershed scale is necessary.

· Monitoring protocols must be standardized.

· Thresholds and triggers of major ecological change need to be identified.

· Much less is known about effects of thinning and fuels treatments on pinyon-juniper woodlands than ponderosa pine forests. Current thinning experiments in P-J offer research opportunities.

· Resource managers need early warning tools.

Ø Primary goal of managing grazing

Ø Identify thresholds/triggers of removing grazing or resuming grazing
see previous comments

Ø Analysis needs to recognize effects on the watershed scale
see previous comments

Ø Need to provide information from the 2003 drought summit and other sources to people to ensure an educated public

Outreach and Communication Needs

Creative solutions are needed to balance ecological and economic sustainability must be generated.

Ø Arizona should invest in an active research program in this arena

The state needs to share a responsibility in the resolutions of cross-political boundary conflicts.

urban-rural interface issues , for example, development impacts on water resources

Grazing practices should incorporate drought planning.

Changing emphasis from drought mitigation to management early on in drought

Livestock owners, especially those on tribal lands, need more options in drought conditions.

Ø Restoration strategy

A restoration strategy should be developed for ecological communities when drought periods end.

Ø Incorporating/recognizing other uses than domestic livestock as impacts to range:

§ OHV’s

§ Oil and gas

§ Wildlife demands on forage

Ø Information in needed on drought recovery in order to allow use that was curtailed due to drought, particularly grazing.

Ø Political pressures versus ecological reality must be addressed.

· Drought education should be ongoing, even in drought-free times.