Table 1.Drought and its Impact on National Parks on the Colorado Plateau: A Survey

Northern Arizona University

Center for Sustainable Environments

P.O. Box 5765

Flagstaff, AZ 86011

RESULTS: N=29, May 28, 2003

How severe has the drought been in the area you work since September 2001?

(21%) __6__ Unprecedented (Very Severe)

(59%) __17__Severe

(14%) __4__ Comparable to Other Known Droughts in the Last 50 Years

(3%) __1__ Moderate

(0%) __0__ Unremarkable

(3%) __1__ Don’t Know

Are plant die offs occurring in your management area, on the scale of:

(10%) __3__ Greater than 50% of trees & shrubs

(3%) __1__ 50-25% of trees & shrubs

(21%) __6__ 25-10% of trees & shrubs

(41%) __12__10% or less of trees & shrubs

(25%) __7__ Don’t know

Plant die offs appear to be due to which factors in your area? (Mark all that apply)

(3%) __1__ Not Applicable

(90%) __26__Drought

(55%) __16__Increased Insect Damage

(21%) __6__ Wildfire

(17%) __5__ Controlled Burns

(17%) __5__ Increased Mammal Herbivory

(7%) __2__ Other

Is there any evidence of drought related mammal declines in your area?

(14%) __4__ Yes

(3%) __1__ No

(83%) __24__Don’t Know

Is there any evidence of drought related bird declines in your area?

(14%) __4__ Yes

(7%) __2__ No

(79%) __23__Don’t Know

Is there any evidence of drought related reptile declines in your area?

(17%) __5__ Yes

(7%) __2__ No

(76%) __22__Don’t Know

Is there any evidence of drought related fish and/or amphibian related declines in your area?

(24%) __7__ Yes

(14%) __2__ No

(55%) __16__Don’t Know

(7%) __2__ Not Applicable

Are any of the following bodies of water currently diminished in your area due to drought?

(41%) __12__Rivers

(66%) __19__Springs & Seeps

(21%) __6__ Don’t Know

Has drought and fire risk affected tourism in your area?

(55%) __16__Yes

(21%) __6__ No

(24%) __7__ Don’t Know

Has your management unit developed a drought management strategy?

(3%) __1__ Yes

(79%) __23__No

(17%) __5__ Partially, as a component of other plans

Has the drought or related fire risk measurably affected how you spend your time as a land manager?

(55%) __16__Yes

(45%) __13__No

Has the drought caused an increase, decrease, or no change in invasive plants in your management area?

(21%) __6__ Increase

(17%) __5__ Decrease

(14%) __4__ No Change

(48%) __14__Don’t Know

Have you had to change livestock stocking levels due to drought?

(21%) __6__ Yes

(14%) __4__ No

(14%) __4__ Don’t Know

Table 2. What kinds of assistance and/or information do you need from scientists?

Flagstaff Monuments:

1) How far outside of normal 500-700 year climatic variation are we?

2) Is this the crest of a normal dry cycle, or will the trend become worse due to the increase of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere?

Anonymous: Impact analysis for drought effects on plants and animals.

Bandelier NM: Need updated imagery of affected areas to assess the scope and intensity of pine mortality.

Hubbell Trading Post: Need continued inventory and monitoring and park wide exotic species eradication plan.

Canyon De Chelly NM: Need continued biological inventory and mapping of exotics. Need improved characterization of all water sources in the park. Determine the impacts of drought on small microhabitats located in side canyons.

Black Canyon/Curacanti and Colorado NM: Need to document the long-term effects of drought on vegetation.

El Malpais NM: Need to know the insect damage potential due to drought stress.

Zion NP: Need more information that can be used to make everyone aware of the severity and magnitude of what this drought has the potential to become (e.g. Precipitation history of the Colorado Plateau 1900-present).

Grand Canyon NP:

1) Predictions of the future.

2) Best management practices for current conditions.

3) How long will this drought last?

4) What are the long range implications?

5) Should prescribed fire be curtailed due to drought?