2003 Southwest Drought Summit

Summary Report

Summit Organizers: Neil Cobb¹, Charlie Schlinger¹, David Ostergren¹, Gregg Garfin², Lisa Taylor¹, and Denny Fenn³,

¹Northern Arizona University, ²University of Arizona, ³Southwest Biological Science Center

Report Compilers: Elizabeth Clark and Neil Cobb, Northern Arizona University

October 3, 2003

http://www.mpcer.nau.edu/megadrought/drought_summit_report/index.htm

MAJOR CONCLUSIONS

There was a consensus on a variety of issues that were raised during the summit. However, five recurring themes/issues emerged during the summit in both presentations and working groups.

DROUGHTS ARE NORMAL. We need to incorporate this reality into management and policy plans. An important impediment to communities incorporating this concept in planning efforts is the tendency to dismiss droughts as regular events that may last years or decades.

WET PERIODS CAN OCCUR WITHIN A DROUGHT. These periods of normal to elevated precipitation can span weeks to years, and are typical of multi-year drought periods. These “wet” breaks in a longer-term pattern hinder appropriate planning because they provide the false assurance that a drought has subsided.

INCREASED POPULATION GROWTH. The Southwest is experiencing unprecedented population growth that will not only exacerbate drought effects but will create serious problems in the future even in the absence of droughts.

LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE. For all of the themes addressed in the summit, we lack long-term data needed to develop predictions necessary for responsible long-term plans for water and land management. Viable long-terms plans are critical to ensure sustainability.

DROUGHT EDUCATION. One of the most repeated statements made during the conference was a need to better educate researchers, managers, policy experts, and the public about drought. This includes formal k-college education as well as informal education programs.