Highlights of the First Day’s Presentations: A Perspective From

Dennis B. Fenn, USGS, Southwest Biological Science Center

The following is a synopsis of the 25 presentations from the first day of the summit. The presentations are referenced in this report and can be found in their entirety at the following sites:

http://www.mpcer.nau.edu/megadrought/drought_summit_report/agency.htm

http://www.mpcer.nau.edu/megadrought/drought_summit_report/science.htm

We do not have the evening presentation given by Don Wilhite, Director of Drought Mitigation Center. However most of the information provided by Dr. Wilhite can be found at http://www.drought.unl.edu/

1) It was recommended that communities and government use a risk management approach rather than a disaster response approach to drought.

2) The Hydro-Illogical Cycle shown by Dr. Wilhite is a good graphic that illustrates the challenges facing society in taking a long-term approach to drought preparation.

3) Numerous speakers have indicated that there are several types of drought.

Ø Meteorological

Ø Agricultural

Ø Hydrological

Ø Socio-Economic and Political

4) The Southwest has suffered drought before and we will suffer drought again in the future. The difference now is that society’s degree of vulnerability has increased due to population growth and economic development in the region.

5) The question was raised about whether Arizona is now in the grips of what has been termed a mega-drought. Most speakers said it is difficult to judge if this is an accurate assessment, but some speakers said they see little to suggest we should be optimistic that the drought will end soon. Other speakers claimed some of the drivers of drought in the Southwest, as well as large hemispheric climate models, are yielding clues that suggest the drought may be losing its grip.

6) We learned that our moisture in the Southwest is the gift of three fickle magi from afar, who answer to the names:

Ø ENSO – El Nińo Southern Oscillation

Ø PDO – Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and

Ø AMO – Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation

Sometimes these forces work together for our good; while at other times they fight it out, to our detriment.

7) Several speakers told us about the ecological effects of drought, using examples like the biodiversity bottleneck, reproductive success determinants, the boon and bane of invasive species, and zoonotic disease movers and shakers.

8) The land and water management, and regulatory agencies described how drought could complicate their agency mission, such as in setting maximum animal units for each grazing allotment.

9) We heard about how drought, federal land management agency policies in response to drought, and California’s economy, are acting together to cause a significant portion of our formerly open rangeland to be sold off into 40-acre ranchettes

10) We heard about the need for monitoring protocols and better ecological information on the effects of drought. For example, what are drought indicators that might have practical application for the land manager?

11) We learned that the Colorado River is at least 25 percent over-allocated because the allocation model was based upon a 30-year wet period rather than on the more accurate long-term norms. This is now creating social conflict within the basin and a potential water crisis in several states, especially in California and Arizona.

12) Several speakers mentioned the concern that drought is synergistically acting with forest management practices in the U.S. to create more wildfires annually as well as far more destructive fires than ever before.

13) Several speakers called for the development of a list of drought plan triggers that communities and government could use in order to respond more effectively to drought events in a timely fashion.